Closing in on Katy, bar the door

Good Monday! Let’s talk about growth.

First off, two things to know about Commissioner Jeff Kinnard:

One, he’s not a troublemaker. Not a rabble-rouser. Confrontation is not his thing. Sure, he’ll stick to his positions. Jeff’s a pro at reading the room. He knows a commissioner’s job is to get two other votes. Other than that, Kinnard tends to avoid the fray.

---

Two, he’s generally considered development friendly. While Kinnard has voted no on development plans here and there, he’s usually the one ready to make a motion to support a land-use application. I’ll return to this point in a moment.
​
So, when mild-mannered Jeff Kinnard returns from his wedding anniversary trip to Spain with a wild idea of an 11-month moratorium on new residential development, well, by golly, he has our attention. (Here's the full board agenda.)

Much has been written and said even before Kinnard has a chance to publicly explain his thinking. Traditional battle lines are drawn. Anti-growthers are cheering Kinnard on; the Chamber of Commerce choked on its Cheerios.

Chair Rebecca Bays was guest speaker at the Chamber lunch on Friday. She was asked about this idea and, not surprisingly, she didn’t like it. Her thoughts: It sends a wrong message that we’re closed for business. Who would want to invest in such a county?

Many people say the explosive growth is organic…homes built on lots meant for homes; businesses built on property meant for stores, gas stations, and restaurants. The experts around here say the growth is going exactly as the forecasters had in mind 20 years ago.

So, what happened? Why push the panic button?

Part of it is my old friend, the pendulum swing. The pendulum swing is the shift that takes place between citizens and commissioners every few years. It basically drives our political/growth bus. Citizens want a certain approach to growth, commissioners are elected to pursue that approach, and the economy balances out.

The pendulum shift usually moves like an old grandfather clock. Tick…tock. Slow, methodical. Since the parkway opened in 2022, the pendulum shift has gone cuckoo. Ticktockticktock. Public opinion is moving much faster than the government can keep up.

Kinnard’s plan is a perfect example. It hasn’t even been discussed publicly; already sides are drawn and positions staked out. How do we get anything done with that approach?

I haven’t asked Jeff about this, so I’m only going on conjecture. But I think I know his rationale.

You see, a moratorium in the practical sense isn’t necessary. The County Commission could slow growth by denying new development applications.

Several months ago, I started asking around: On a development plan that checks all the boxes, where the applicant has done everything asked of him, can the County Commission still say no? The answer: Yes! The County Commission may determine a project is not in the public’s best interest, without having to explain why in legal terms.

Commissioners don’t want to be placed in that situation. And developers definitely don’t. With few exceptions, developers would rather delay a project than risk a no vote and try a new plan. It’s very difficult for a developer to come back from a no vote. 

My guess is from Jeff’s perspective, he’d rather see a pause on new development to get our ducks in a row road-wise, than being forced into a position to deny quality developments.

As for me, I’m thrilled we’re having the conversation. My blogs from the last three years are filled with this very subject. It doesn’t directly tie into the 491 mess, but it’s all related. (Check out this month's Look What's Coming report.)

Thanks to one of their own, commissioners are about to embark on a serious conversation about growth, where we are today, and what has to happen tomorrow. 

Strap in, expect a bumpy ride.

— Kinnard’s moratorium is only for new residential development, so today’s photo is somewhat unrelated to the specific issue. I just liked the picture.

Have a wonderful Monday, friends.

​Join the discussion on our Facebook page.

Support the blog by subscribing to JWC Inner Circle for 99 cents/month.

Individual donations are appreciated through Venmo, PayPal, or Patreon.