Gathering steam at the right time

It’s Wednesday, so let’s talk about momentum.

Momentum is huge in politics. With early voting starting Friday and 10,000 people already voting by mail, we are in full-fledged Aug. 20 primary election mode.

I use a sports analogy. Teams limping into the playoffs rarely succeed. Campaigns that fizzle or go into cruise control in August find themselves sucking wind when voting starts.

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No one wins an election in July, but that’s when many candidates lose. Why? They become mechanically safe instead of rousing a base of support. You can't just light that up overnight. Playing not to lose rarely works.

The sheriff’s race highlights exactly what momentum vs. no momentum looks like.

Dave Vincent has a ton of momentum. The incumbent has little to none.

Let me explain.

The way to run a successful campaign is to have a great start, even keel in the middle, and a great push at the end. Two areas define a great start: Money and supporters.

Sheriff Mike Prendergast had a great money start. He opened his campaign account in October 2023 and had collected $202,000 by April 2024.

Vincent opened his campaign a little earlier and collected $44,000 in the same time frame. Head-to-head, the incumbent jumped out of the gate with a game plan built on attaining campaign wealth early on, then spending it when he needed to.

It was a significant hurdle for Vincent or any other challenger to overcome.

My concern with Vincent’s campaign early on was that voters wanted an alternative to the incumbent but weren’t sold on Dave. 

Doug Alexander changed all that. Doug’s entry into the campaign lit a fire under Vincent and his supporters. Doug provided a huge community boost to the race itself. People who didn’t realize Vincent was in the race now knew that because Doug had their attention.

Dave’s victory, if there is one, can be directly tied to Doug’s decision to both enter and then exit the race. Doug, because of his stellar well-earned reputation, brought instant focus on the idea that the sheriff should be like-minded with the community.

Vincent jumped at the opportunity. Since it’s been reduced to a two-candidate race, Vincent has raised over $50,000 to Prendergast’s less than $3,000. 

One could say, truthfully, that Prendergast had raised what he needed by that time and saw no need to keep his foot on the gas. That static, methodical approach to campaigning may work for him. Vincent, though, has actual people out pounding the drum for their guy.

Saturday morning, I wandered over to the Courthouse Square where dozens of green-shirt Vincent supporters gathered for a team shot at the Historic Old Courthouse. It was an enthusiastic and excited crowd, encouraged with a candidate who places community first.

Meanwhile, I picked up my Weekend Chronicle and saw Prendergast had a full-page ad with excerpts of endorsement letters to the editor. One of those letters was written by the incumbent’s campaign manager. Just going to say it: When you need to rely on the hired help to boost your campaign, that’s a flag.

Here’s another one: The incumbent boasted of endorsements by the governor, congressman, and attorney general. In other words, people who don’t live in Citrus County. According to his own ad, Prendergast’s local endorsements of note are limited to three people: Inverness Mayor Bob Plaisted, former Commissioner Winn Webb, and one-time losing candidate Mel Eakley. Not exactly a murderer's row.

Meanwhile, Vincent is riding a wave of enthusiasm coming into early voting. In a primary where voter turnout tops out around 30%, his hope is the wave carries supporters to the polls.

Momentum is huge. Vincent has it right now. Is it enough? Defeating an incumbent has a very high degree of difficulty. Vincent is eager to do his best, and he has an army of support.

— The Citrus Springs Civic Association has a meet-the-candidates event at 6 p.m. Wednesday at the community center in Citrus Springs. It’s a chance to speak with candidates directly before early voting starts.

— The Chamber of Commerce is hosting a town hall meeting on conserving the environment and water sources in the face of growth. That’s at 5 p.m. Wednesday at the College of Central Florida in Lecanto. Agriculture Commissioner Wilton is the keynote speaker.

Two awesome opportunities to participate in our community. Dive in, friends.

Join the discussion on our Facebook page.

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