Nailing a bullseye on our growth

This should come as no surprise:

There’s a lot of people living in this county. And a lot more still to come.

The County Commission has an 8:30 a.m. workshop today to discuss the “interactive growth model,” a study of what’s coming, where, and when.

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I read it over a few times, and no surprises jumped out. The idea is the county can create development plans in response to this growth forecast.

The study points out the obvious: We have a lot of rooftops. Most of those are single-family homes. Not enough commercial space to serve the growing residential population.

Some highlights:

— The baseline from 2023 shows 87,693 residential units. Of those, 93% are single-family homes. No wonder people are priced out of the market. We need more apartments and duplexes so that working folks have an affordable place to live.

— The study refers to “buildout” as if it’s real. We used to think of buildout as the maximum number of homes still to come — about 50,000. However, that’s what is currently platted. The County Commission, as we’ve seen, can easily increase that number by approving planned unit developments.

I’m hoping the discussion includes a deep dive into these projected numbers. Are they based on current zoning, or trends? Trends can change with each election every two years.

— We don’t have enough stores, restaurants, and other commercial uses to offset the current and projected population. 

“The pace of commercial development has not kept pace with the population growth,” the study reads.

Again, with these studies, it’s difficult to know what data they’re looking at. Is this from 2023, before the Target enclave sprung up in Lecanto? 

Regardless, it’s a point well taken.

— The RATE of growth will start to decline in 2035. Until then, it’s grow, grow, grow. The report estimates 8,900 new houses before 2030.

— This is interesting: Every time the population increases by 15,500, in practical terms what’s needed is a new park, fire station and shopping center.

“To secure a high quality of life for future residents, planners and policymakers should ensure there is enough land allocated for non-residential services and major facilities, including schools, parks, and fire stations,” the report reads.

— The Central Ridge area will have 13,000 new residents by 2040. Judging by the traffic, I’d say they arrived last week.

— The seasonal/tourist population is about 12% of our total. Over 2,800 RV pads are approved for future development. That’s a lot of slow-moving fifth-wheelers. We love our visitors!

— Shopping centers of various sizes are important depending on the population moving in. That would seem logical, though I’m not sure what role the government plays other than commercial zoning. 

— To show how Citrus compares to a smattering of counties for shopping, the study breaks down the commercial square feet per person. In Citrus, it’s 80 square feet. Others: Charlotte County, 71 square feet; Seminole, 121 square feet. 

Oddly, the study doesn’t compare us to our surrounding counties, info I’d think would be very helpful.

— One recommendation is to allow for higher densities in areas near existing commercial centers. I totally agree, and propose the following:

The Suncoast Parkway interchange zoning overlay at C.R. 486 should exclude single-family housing. Instead, only apartments and duplexes for residential. It’s near existing commercial centers. New hospitals are cropping up right down the road. The county has a multi-use trail right for easy foot/bike travel. If ever there was a spot to encourage housing that working folks can afford, this is it.

I actually have the same recommendation for the Cardinal Farms property near the parkway interchange on Cardinal. The board (wisely) said no to homes there. Apartments aren’t much better, but at least that’s a more logical residential idea near the parkway than $400,000 houses.

These models and forecasts are just that…professional guesses based on solid data. As anyone who pays attention knows, however, it’s not always that easy. Citrus County prior to February 2022, when the parkway opened at S.R. 44, hardly resembles the Citrus County of today. We are much busier, much more crowded, and MUCH MORE aggravated by growth. What made sense five years ago may not make sense today.

Where have we been? Where are we going? How do we get there? And, is it really what we want?

All valid questions. County commissioners, they’re seeking answers. As are we.

Have a great Tuesday, friends.
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