On the flip side of the first wave

Happy Monday! Here’s something to ponder:

Are we slowing down? Has the first wave peaked?

The numbers would certainly suggest it. The mad rush to develop Citrus County that began with the parkway’s opening in February 2022 is now a mad stroll.

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Property Appraiser Cregg Dalton released preliminary 2025 tax roll data on Friday. He’s required by law to alert the taxing districts — County, School Board, Cities, etc. — by June 1 of the preliminary roll, followed up by the certified tax roll a month later.

(I’m not going to delve into how these numbers convert to actual taxes, or the way millage is calculated. The Property Appraiser does not decide the tax rate. I’ve written about it before; check out this blog. I’d also suggest signing up for the Property Appraiser’s Training Session. Here's the link.)

First, the data. The county’s preliminary 2025 taxable value is $15.9 billion, up 7.4% from last year. We’ll return to this in a minute.

New construction added $442 million to the tax roll. This is a number that always holds my interest because it’s a true indicator of growth as it happens.

Let me explain.

The county’s taxable value is an economic barometer. It takes everything into account and is mostly aligned with true financial growth. If that number is pointing up, we’re in good shape economically. If it flattens out, we notice it in higher unemployment and construction slowdown. 

Citrus County’s economy took a boost with the Suncoast Parkway opening to S.R. 44 in February 2022. We started noticing a significant uptick in traffic and home construction about six months prior, and Target announced its intentions for a long-awaited store right around the same time.

So, I look at February 2022 as when the floodgates were open.

And the numbers bore it out. Countywide taxable values jumped 11.6% from 2022 to ‘23, and 10.4% from ‘23 to ‘24. And now it’s a 7.4% increase from last year. That increase would likely be higher if not for the county losing taxable values on property damaged by hurricanes or the Crystal River tornado.

Still, a very solid number and an indicator of a healthy construction-based economy.

“It’s a clear signal that Citrus County remains a desirable place to live, work, and grow,” Dalton said.

Now. That second number. The new construction number. Different animal.

New construction isn’t a barometer. More like a snapshot. Anytime a business opens, or someone gets the key to their new home, it's added to the tax roll as new construction.

We have seen a ton of construction activity taking place the last three years and continuing today. But the numbers would suggest that it’s slowing down just a tick from just a few years ago.

New construction added $442 million to the ‘25 tax roll. Huge number, for sure. But it’s 1.3% LESS than the new construction added in 2024 (still twice as much as 2022). The ‘24 number was 20% higher than ‘23. The 2023 new construction taxable value was 67% higher than ‘22.

That tells me much of the big-ticket commercial projects are completed and now open for business, such as Target, which anchors the C.R. 491/486 commercial hub.

Dalton called it a “leveling off” in the latter part of 2024.

Dalton’s press release said the new-construction numbers show “substantial completion of commercial and mixed-use development projects.”

It’s not like construction has come to a halt. We have half a dozen new residential/commercial projects platted and shovel ready. Dalton fully expects an uptick in commercial and residential growth in the coming years.

But it’s telling that, three years after the first big wave of franchise commercial ventures first set sights on little ‘ol Citrus County, most are now open for business.

I know this is all government geeky stuff. Don’t really have a point today. Our county continues to grow. No shock there. We may have a teensy-weensy slowdown, but it’s no time to nap.

Have a great Monday, friends.

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