Please tell me you saw this coming

Today’s big question: How the heck did that happen?

Janet Barek. I’m referring to Janet Barek.

How can Janet Barek, whose understanding of Citrus County government is fleeting, who shows up every two weeks to tell commissioners how wrong they are…how does THAT person capture the hearts of Citrus County voters?

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How can Ruthie Davis Schlabach, an incumbent with tons of upside and very little downside, lose to an opponent who is known more as a gadfly than inspirational leader?

Politics, that’s how. I have thoughts:

— Anyone who looks at this result and thinks they know what it means is guessing. NOTHING preceded this vote. Unlike a certain incumbent sheriff, Ruthie didn’t go out of her way to antagonize people. Other than the usual rhythm of politics — some you make happy, some you don’t — there was no huge anti-Ruthie campaign out there.

— I had a phone conversation with a friend before the polls closed. I told her I expected both incumbents to finish in the 50s percentage-wise and she was surprised. She expected more votes for the incumbents. I mentioned there’s a general anxiety about the way things are these days, and I didn’t see either incumbent running away from that.

— Why did Ruthie lose? Not for the obvious reasons. Sure, some voters were turned off by taxes, roads, zoning, and all the other stuff commissioners do. But that’s not why she lost.

She didn't get enough votes. Yeah, no kidding, Mike. Tell us something we don’t know.

To the point. Not enough of HER votes. Ruthie’s supporters didn’t vote. They thought she had it in the bag.

We talked about this. The Primary voter is a motivated voter. That means either the Primary Is special or it’s just another Tuesday. Supporters who don’t bother to vote in a primary because their candidate has it made are usually the ones sitting around the next day wondering what happened to their shiny victory.

This harkens back to one of the most famous political upsets ever. Helen Spivey vs. Richard “Spike” Fitzpatrick for state House, 1994. Spike was a well-known Inverness attorney. Helen had one campaign sign. Spike won the first primary, but not enough to win outright. There was a runoff.

Voter turnout is awful in a runoff. Spike’s friends stayed home. Helen’s friends were motivated to vote for her. The motivated votes won. In every circumstance, Spike could have defeated Helen six days a week and twice on Sunday. But votes only count when they’re cast. No one is elected on good intentions.

— Interesting that Curtiss “C.J” Bryant, who seemed to have a decent grasp of the issues, didn’t make a serious dent against Commissioner Jeff Kinnard. Why did voters go against Ruthie but stick with Jeff? Or why did they go for Janet but not Curtiss? I mean, both districts were basically the same race. 

— One thing to watch for: Janet is friends with John “Library Guy” Labriola. She said he helped her in Inverness. Great. Look, I’m not casting aspersions before someone warms the seat, but we’re going to be rather clear about this, right? 

I’m already hearing from friends who are worried the Library Guy Gang will sink its fangs into Janet before she has a chance to figure out what’s what. Janet says she’ll be an independent thinker. I hope she knows we’ll be watching this development closely.

— Speaking of that, District 5 Commissioner Holly Davis should consider NPA opponent Paul Grogan the frontrunner. If Holly looks at Tuesday’s results and thinks, “That’ll never happen to ME,” it’s already close to happening. She may learn from her friend Ruthie. Full-court press is the only way to go.

— Unrelated to the County Commission, I’m stoked for the School Board District 2 runoff between Ken Frink and Victoria Smith. I’ll have much to say about this race. Just not today.

— In other election news, the margin of victory for Amber May Thomas over Lisa Yeager for County Judge is so narrow it triggers a machine recount Friday morning. Only 118 votes out of 34,758 cast separate the two.

Also, FYI, the Fifth Judicial Circuit Court judge winners: Erin Daly, Heidi Davis, and Barbara Kwatkosky.

— Voter turnout was 34%. Not great but that’s the reality. I will say this. Voters sure hit it out of the ballpark. 

How do I know? Simple.

Voters are never wrong. Never. That’s why their word is final.

Have a great Thursday, friends.

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