Signs for Holly Davis to overcome

Had a fascinating conversation Monday with a friend who is convinced Holly Davis’ re-election is in trouble.

This friend isn’t overtly political, but he pays attention and has a better-than-average grasp on how things work around here.

He went through the litany of reasons he saw as incumbent Ruthie Davis Schlabach’s downfall against Janet Barek in the District 3 primary shocker. Basically, my friend said, Ruthie sees life one way, and Citrus County voters see it differently.

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My friend believes Holly will have similar issues with voters in the November election. Even against NPA nobody Paul Grogan.
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Well, that got me thinking. What has to happen for Holly to lose?

I’ve had this blog idea on my mind for a few weeks but held off writing anything. A lot of stuff is grabbing my attention at the moment. Incumbent vs NPA doesn’t sound like front-burner stuff.

But then I think about the primary, and how Just Wright Citrus pretty much ignored both County Commission races on the (obviously incorrect) approach that the incumbents were safe. No regrets, voters do what voters do, but after that experience, I’m treating this race like a battle between two titans.

One more thing before diving in: I’ve told more than one candidate over Cattle Dog chats they need someone like me — a campaign volunteer walking up the driveway who everyone’s first thought is, “Oh crap, Mike’s here.”

Successful campaigns encourage volunteers who openly challenge their candidates (pick your spots!) and raise topics no one wants to talk about. Better to have difficult conversations now than wake up post-Election Day wondering what the hell just happened.

That’s me. The guy walking up Holly’s driveway. Oh crap, Mike’s here.

So, how could Holly lose?

More ways than you’d think. The easiest is perception. 

You know, it’s not always fair, but perception rules politics. It’s 99% of reality and the other 1% doesn’t count. Candidates tend to avoid negative perceptions like the plague.

Here’s what I mean: How is it possible I’m hearing constantly about this NPA character? If people are seriously taking a look at that guy, guess what? That’s on Holly. Something is off kilter. Perception is lurking somewhere. Let’s look at one example.

Several JWC readers in the last week noted Holly’s signs at the Pine Ridge Golf Course property on Elkcam Boulevard. They didn’t see it as a good look.

While it’s true Davis and the board voted 5-0 against the proposed development on the golf course, the developer is challenging that decision. He also sued a Pine Ridge homeowners' group over comments made on the issue and, separately, is in line for the Betz Farm deal. He has a lot of irons in the fire.

The public these days is generally siding with neighborhoods over developers. So, they’re wondering why Davis hitched her wagon to this developer’s post. 

The signs definitely catch the motorist’s attention. I noticed them driving by one afternoon, and the very next day folks started letting me know about it. Here’s the thing though: The conversation often started on their end, “What’s her sign doing there?”

That’s one reaction. Worse, voters could be turned off by it. Yes, simply by a campaign sign and where it’s placed. Hard to see an upside here.

Perception is always a sticky wicket for incumbents. One they should constantly keep a common-sense eye on.

Though, honestly, Holly could have prevented that. Candidates can't stop negative perception, but they also don't have to open the door to it either.

In this race, Holly cannot afford unforced errors.  Fortunately, these are easy campaign fixes. I wouldn't get hung up on minor perception setbacks (unless the campaign doesn’t see them as minor, then we have a different conversation).

Here’s the deal: Most of the public, the lion’s share, want Holly to succeed. This buzz I’m hearing about Grogan is cute, but Holly represents 99% of the knowledge and 100% of the logic for voters in this race. A vote for Grogan is a protest vote against everything we stand for as a community. 

OK, I’m done. Blunt, for sure. Not sure Holly will appreciate it. But I promise here to speak my truth on matters of significance for Citrus County. There is nothing more significant than an election.

No slight to Janet Barek, but her District 3 primary race caught some people napping, including me. That won’t happen in the District 5 election. Let’s start talking about it now.

Can Holly Davis lose to a far inferior opponent? I guess anything is possible. As we just learned.

Have a great Tuesday, friends.

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