That's what we call a mandate

Well, well, well.

My, my, my.

I try not to overanalyze election results when they’re only a few hours old, and I’m writing at midnight.

Plus, four Florida Politics election night stories on deadline can make a guy a little punchy.

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That said, wow. My, what a Primary. Here are the official results.

People want change and change they’ll get. Tossed are two incumbents — that’s three incumbents removed from the five-member County Commission in the last two years, if anyone’s keeping score — by an electorate that clearly feels neglected.

And how about Mike Mullen for School Board? Man, that’s what a good name does. Opponent John Thrumston spent $26,000 of his own money, poured it into signs and mail pieces…and still got walloped. Mullen won with 63%, pretty good for a guy who’d never run for office before.

Plus, it's Rep. JJ Grow vs. Mark Baker in November for House District 23. I think the world of Tod Cloud, but scoring just 25% in the Republican Primary is not good at all.

Today’s focus, though, is on the two County Commission races. Let’s break ‘em down some.

— First up, voter turnout: 34%. Not great, not horrible, about average for a Primary. Look. If the rest of the county is OK with a third of us making all the decisions, that’s fine by me. Looking at the results, it seems voters really did their homework.

— District 2 was a cliffhanger. Stacey Worthington defeated incumbent Diana Finegan by less than 400 votes out of 38,000 cast. 

The very interesting element of this race is the breakout: Finegan won with people who came out to vote, whether early or on Election Day. Worthington, however, did better with mail votes, by a wide margin. What an odd combo.

Huge difference between this election and the one four years ago between these same candidates. That closed Republican Primary gave Finegan a comfortable 57% victory over Worthington. Open the Primary to all voters this year, and Worthington wins by a razor-thin margin.

That cannot be a coincidence. Worthington owes her win, at least in part, to Democrats and other non-Republicans who didn’t have this chance in 2022.

— Did voters choose Holli Herndon in District 4? Or did they reject Rebecca Bays? Probably a little of both.

Herndon didn’t break 50%, which is unfortunate, but the mandate is clear. She won with 46% to Bays’ 36%, with Jennifer Grogan coming in third at 18%.

This was the referendum on growth, and voters responded accordingly. Herndon ran an excellent campaign, true grassroots stuff. Bays collected three times as much in campaign funds, and sent out numerous mail pieces, but she couldn’t overcome the anti-development tide sweeping the county.

Herndon won in all three phases of voting. She had motivated voters — a 2,000-vote margin over Bays on Primary Election Day alone.

Herndon came out of nowhere to defeat a well-connected incumbent. It’s really a win for the ages. 

— Oh yeah, quick word on Jennifer Grogan. I hope the Library Guy Gang is happy with 18%, cuz that’s their ceiling. She hurt neither Bays nor Herndon and provided little more than an odd curiosity. 

— Here’s a data point I’ll probably never be able to prove. While voter turnout was 34%, I believe the turnout of true supporters was much higher for Herndon, Finegan, and Worthington. Meaning, 80% (just a guess) of Herndon supporters actually voted. Similar numbers for the other two.

Bays, not so sure. Scoring just 36% would suggest some of her supporters either didn’t vote or changed their allegiance. 

— What does it all mean? Well, I laid out scenarios a few weeks ago, and this was one of them. The mandate in removing incumbents is always the same: Change. Voters removed three incumbents over two elections — that’s a significant message. One that I hope Commissioners Holly Davis and Jeff Kinnard are heeding.

My, my, my. Big vote, Citrus County. All I can say is, wow.

Have a great Wednesday, friends.

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