This historic win is a statement

Wow. Just wow.

How big was Dave Vincent’s landslide win over Sheriff Mike Prendergast? During the lively celebration taking place Tuesday night at the Train Station in Inverness, Dawn Faherty called it the best election night ever.

Bigger than when your husband was elected to the School Board?

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She thought for a second. “Bigger!”

That voters delivered the same crushing victory to Scott Hebert for Superintendent of Schools should tell us something.

This was a statement vote if there ever was one. Let’s break it down.

First off, I haven’t forgotten the big upset of the night. Janet Barek edging Commissioner Ruthie Davis Schlabach in District 3 is, frankly, bizarre. I have no explanation for it. Nothing against Janet, but she never comes across as someone with a strong grip on the issues. Why voters decided to boot Ruthie is a mystery.

So much that I’m not even going to address it here. Pretty much a head-shaker. With Commissioner Jeff Kinnard comfortably winning re-election in District 1, there’s no clear message from voters to the county.

And I’m also leaving aside for now the School Board results, which came out pretty much as I had hoped. Ken Frink seemed a cinch to get in the 40s%, which he did, and I’m looking forward to the campaign continuing against Victoria Smith (and her husband Jimmie T.)

No, we had two statement votes. And what statement votes they were.

It certainly seemed like the momentum was on the side of both Vincent and Hebert.

For Hebert, his campaign really took off at the Chronicle forum. He showed a packed house that he had the skill level and experience to pick up superintendent right from Sandra “Sam” Himmel.

Jason Koon’s campaign, meanwhile, peaked before early voting started. I’ve seen this thing before and it’s hard to combat. Politics is a momentum game, and candidates want to go into voting on a high note.

The numbers show that Hebert took the vote from Koon right away. Vote by mail, early votes, Election Day — all huge for Hebert.

His win is vindication for Himmel, who retires after 20 years and hands the keys to the one she supported to follow. It’s a massive win for the Citrus County School District community.

And then there’s Dave Vincent.

No one in 44 years has done this. Not since Charlie Dean bested incumbent B.R. Quinn. No candidate has begun such an arduous task against a well-heeled two-term incumbent, the sheriff, the most powerful politician in town — and on Election Night it’s the incumbent ducking for cover.

I took a great deal of interest in this race because it mirrored the whole community debate I’m always writing about. I also liked the optics.

Still, even going back to the early spring, I saw this as a fool’s errand. Sure, it sounded all sweet and Mayberry to talk about electing a community-minded cop over this unpopular rigid incumbent. The numbers didn’t add up.

Then something began to happen. Prendergast kept stepping in it. And Dave Vincent started building a coalition and mapped out a cohesive strategy that kept the pressure on right up to 7 p.m. Tuesday.

In the last few weeks, it became clear Dave was doing well. (How can I tell? I just can. I’m an old political dude.) The primary voter is a motivated voter; most people are motivated to action if they deem it worthwhile. Certainly, it seemed like Dave’s stock was rising.

But voters are fickle as a hurricane path. Waiting on the results Tuesday night, I had no idea what to expect.

So when that first batch of mail-in ballots was released, and I saw Vincent at 62%, I let out an audible gasp. Sixty-two percent??!! The remaining early votes followed a few minutes later and I was staring at an improbable Vincent landslide.

It really is extraordinary. Even past midnight, as I’m posting the blog, I’m struck by the success of this campaign. Dave Vincent earned it. He worked hard for it. He inspired people to work hard for him because they embraced his vision.

Never seen anything like it. Well done, friends.

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