Voters will choose the mandate

And it’s a new week. Yay!

Bunny Road Trips help get the creative juices going. One such idea from a recent drive made the playbook.

It has to do with the voter mandate. After every election, no matter who wins, we always talk about what it all means. You know, what’s the voter mandate with such-and-such result?

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Two years ago, for example. Two races with a clear voter mandate. One with Dave Vincent ousting an unpopular two-term incumbent for Sheriff. I think most people saw that one coming.

The other came from Janet Barek defeating incumbent Ruthie Schlabach for County Commission District 3. That was a direct shot across the bow to the Citrus County political establishment that life as they knew it had taken a significant hit.

The mandate was clear: No more business as usual.

So, I’m going to throw out the four likely scenarios from the two County Commission races. And the voter mandate behind each one.

An observation: Elections are winner-take-all. They’re not graded on a scale. Doesn’t matter if it’s by five votes or 5,000; each winner gets to declare the voter's mandate. That’s a harsh reality for candidates who garner thousands of votes but still lose.

Let’s jump in and see how this goes.

— Scenario one: Diana Finegan in District 2, and Rebecca Bays in District 4 are both re-elected.

Mandate: Voters trust the decision-makers in office today and don’t want any changes. It’s clear that, despite our differences, voters are content with the team on the field.

I’m not handicapping these choices, but this seems the most unlikely. Finegan and Bays are not running as a team. They’re totally different incumbents. Hard to see voters in this highly charged environment returning BOTH incumbents, though that can happen if they’re considered safer choices over two unknowns.

— Scenario two: Stacey Worthington in District 2 is elected, and Bays in District 4 is reelected. 

Mandate: Best fit for the job. 

If you read the Chronicle’s recommendations for Worthington and Bays, there’s a feeling undercutting both, and it’s this: We can trust them with the heavy lifting.

Both have shown quiet maturity on the campaign trail. That resonates with voters who may not even necessarily agree with a candidate’s position on issues.

A Worthington/Bays win would suggest they have the experience and temperament to move the county forward.

— Scenario 3: Finegan is re-elected in District 2, and Holli Herndon elected in District 4.

Mandate: Total rejection of the longtime political establishment, with government shakeup likely to follow.

While Herndon and Finegan haven’t run as a team, they’re somewhat thrust into that position because Worthington and Bays align so well. 

Herndon is still the outsider of the legitimate candidates, so she must work the hardest to secure votes. If voters choose Herndon over Bays, AND return Finegan over Worthington, that’s the loudest message of all four scenarios. 

This mandate is the one most fraught with unknowns. 

— Scenario 4: Voters toss both incumbents, electing Worthington in District 2, and Herndon in District 4. 

Mandate: It follows an anti-incumbent mood, but I’d be unsure of the direction for the same reason that questions both incumbents being re-elected. They’re totally different people. Same with their challengers.

However, it would also signal the community’s overall lack of trust in the County Commission as a whole. I don’t usually see the anti-incumbent way of things, but this scenario wouldn’t shock me at all.

— Scenario Never in Our Lifetime: Jennifer Grogan wins District 4. This is extremely unlikely considering the depth of both Bays and Herndon. There simply is no reason to have a third alternative when the other two contrast so well. But let’s play along.

Mandate: Exodus to Dixie County.

There ya go. Have a great Monday, friends.

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