Survey results sting for some

Meanwhile, back to boring old regular politics.

The Citrus County Chamber of Commerce released its annual Temperature Check survey of members about the state of the county and its politicians.

Coincidentally, around the same time, someone sent me the results of an informal survey, distributed to numerous Facebook groups, related to candidates for local elections.

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Before we get into it, remember that these are not polls, so there’s no scientific method. Considering these two surveys had different purposes much of the findings actually line up. 

For example, five of the six constitutional officers rank very high. Property Appraiser Cregg Dalton, Tax Collector Janice Warren, Superintendent of Schools Sandra “Sam” Himmel, and Supervisor of Elections Maureen “Mo” Baird scored higher than 70% in the “favorable” category on the Chamber Temperature Check, and Clerk of Courts Angela Vick was in the high 60s.

Baird is the only incumbent in that group on the ballot facing an opponent. The Facebook survey was one of those simple “who would you vote for” questions, and Baird scored 75%. 

As for the particulars, about a third of the chamber’s 900-plus members participated, which is a pretty good number. And the Facebook survey had about 171 responses, mostly Republicans, which seems like a pretty good number too. It feels like a level playing field — business types in one group, Facebookers in another.

So, let’s dive in.

— The Temperature Check survey divided responses into three: favorable, not favorable, and unsure. Three of the five county commissioners had favorable responses north of 50%. Commissioner Diana Finegan was at just 21% favorable and 67% unfavorable — that’s not too surprising, this isn’t really her crowd. 

Commissioner Holly Davis, now there’s an interesting result. Davis scores only fair with the chamber types — 40% favorable, 32% unfavorable, and 28% unsure. It was the highest “unsure” of any commissioner. That’s probably an accurate assessment. Davis is difficult to figure out sometimes.

As for the Facebook survey, she’s a big winner so far in her race against far inferior opponents. What’s interesting is our NPA friend, Paul Grogan, actually scored higher than the other Republican, Jesse Rumson. Guess the panda head experience isn’t paying dividends quite yet.

— Commissioner Ruthie Davis Schlabach is 57% favorable, and also has a sizable lead against two lesser-known opponents. Frankly, I’d expect nothing less. Ruthie can be, um, challenging at times, but as a commissioner, she’s solid.

— Commissioner Jeff Kinnard’s numbers are also telling. He scored 51% favorable, with the rest split between unsure and unfavorable. I’m a little surprised by that, as I thought he did well with business types.

The Facebook survey shows him with 61% over CJ Bryant — not bad, but not great. As many Just Wright Citrus readers have pointed out, this is a race to watch.

— I mentioned one constitutional officer who didn’t score so well in either survey. Not well at all.

Sheriff Mike Prendergast has a 26% favorable— and 67% unfavorable — rating in the Temperature Check. Yow. As with Kinnard, I would have thought Prendergast would score well with small business owners.

Then look at the Facebook survey, and it’s equally as bad: just 11%, which is third in a four-candidate race. Again, not sure what to make of that. It seems unrealistic that a two-term incumbent sheriff would be pulling in numbers that low.

On the other hand, Dave Vincent and Doug Alexander scored well — 47% for Vincent, and 34% for Alexander. The survey kickoff was a month after Alexander announced his campaign; Vincent had an eight-month head start.

(Not for today, but we’re probably headed toward discussing Vincent/Alexander. The talk has already started: For either one to win, they likely can’t both be on the ballot. I don’t believe Prendergast at 11% for a second. Like I said, another day.)

— Other tidbits:

Citrus County’s business community is not enamored by Sen. Blaise Ingoglia. His favorable rating was 43% in the Temperature Check survey. Retiring Rep. Ralph Massullo had 68% favorable.

In two open races (no incumbent), the Facebook survey showed both Scott Hebert for Superintendent of Schools, and Traci Phillips for Clerk of Court, with big leads. 

In another open race, School Board District 2, where we have four candidates, Ken Frink and Laura Gatling-Wright (no relation) were the top two, but no one was close to the 50%-plus-one needed to avoid a November runoff.

Whew. OK, that’s enough for Monday. Enjoy it, friends.

(About today’s photo: My first photo made sense when I sat down to write but, hours later, it didn’t. So, a bee sign. And, just to have some Monday fun, the first person who can tell me approximately where I took this photo is deserving of both a Just Wright Citrus T-shirt AND a sticker.)

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