The data has something to say

For someone who barely passed math in school, I sure have a fascination for numbers.

Which means the annual Temperature Check is right up my alley.

The Chamber of Commerce conducts this survey to get an idea where business folks stand politically. Is the county headed in the right direction? Do people generally view locally elected people in a favorable or unfavorable light?

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About 10% of the chamber’s 900 members, including me, participated in this year’s Temp Check.

I find this info useful as it provides one view of the prevailing political winds. Because I’m a trend guy, I asked the chamber for the 2021 and ‘22 results as well.

Observations:

— Sheriff Mike Prendergast has not only angered his core base with a series of political missteps this year, the chamber folks aren’t too thrilled with him either.

Prendergast’s approval rating with the chamber survey is just 27%, with 61% having an unfavorable view of him. Prendergast, Sen. Blaise Ingoglia and Commissioner Diana Finegan are the only Citrus County politicians with unfavorable ratings higher than favorable.

As the most polarizing elected official, it’s not surprising that Prendergast’s numbers are a little off. He trended in thirds for 2021 and ‘22 — an approval rating below 50% but the “unsure” category taking nearly 20%.

To drop from 45% approval to 27% in one year is a pretty big red flag. Remember that Prendergast is up for re-election next year, though I haven’t heard his plans.

— I mentioned Ingoglia, whose debut in the chamber Temperature Check brings him 28% favorable/33% unfavorable. Obviously, lots of “unsure” when it comes to our new senator but it seems he hasn’t made nice with the chamber.

Compare that to Rep. Ralph Massullo, who is serving his seventh year in office: 57% favorable. Not a huge number but not a bad one either.

— The other constitutional officers are well supported. Both Supervisor of Elections Maureen “Mo” Baird and Tax Collector Janice Warren scored north of 80% favorable.

— Crystal River and Inverness each have approval percentage ratings in the mid-60s,

— The county commission numbers are interesting, to say the least. Overall, chamber members believe the county is moving in the right direction; in 2021, just 39% of respondents said the county was on the right track; this year, it’s 63%.

Commissioners Rebecca Bays and Ruthie Davis Schlabach received most of the love for that change. Both scored above 70% approval.

After that, though, it gets weird. Commissioner Holly Davis, who came into office with Schlabach and suffered the same misery under two former commissioners, has an approval of just 54%, a drop from the last two years. Her disapproval was at 24%, also not a great number.

Commissioner Jeff Kinnard, who next year will complete his eighth year in office as he seeks another four-year term, has an approval rating a point below Davis.

Then there’s Finegan. I don’t know why someone who’s been in office just six months would have an upside-down approval — 29% for, 35% against — other than I have to suspect it’s residual from a testy political campaign. 

—85% of respondents say the Chamber is moving in the right direction. I 100% agree.

— Now, this is interesting: 57% say the state is moving the right way. It’s a similar number to 2021 and ‘22, but shouldn’t it be higher after Gov. Ron DeSantis’ overwhelming re-election last year (74% of votes in Citrus County)?

That’s under 60% for both Massullo and the state of Florida, with Ingoglia finishing in the red. Folks are perhaps more dissatisfied with the state government than election results would indicate.

— Top issues for Citrus County business people: economic development, affordable housing, and roads. No surprise there.

What did we learn from all this data? Two things:

— Citrus County is looking good. Florida, not bad but not great.

— Most county elected officials enjoy strong business support. For a few, it’s so-so or no-go. Not a problem for Ingoglia in the super red Senate District 11, and Finegan is just starting a four-year term so the proof of her performance is yet to come. 

Prendergast, though, is trending in the wrong direction a year before ballot qualifying. 

That’s it for today. Gotta give the calculator a rest.

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