'Undecided' carries a big number

Geez, I almost let the week pass without talking about the Beverly Hills Civic Association forum.
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Nearly every local candidate was there. Turnout, not so great. It was a Saturday event on Memorial Day weekend, which may have tempered the crowd size some. 

More of a meet-the-candidate event than speech-making, it was the first time many of these candidates were in the same room with so many colleagues.

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Nothing occurred in the newsworthy sense. However, someone was handing out a QR code for a survey on the races. The idea was to test the waters of Saturday attendees, which probably works well in theory but not reality.

Here’s how I know: 261 people responded. I doubt 200 people, candidates and their friends included, attended the event. That means it was shared off campus, so it’s not necessarily a reflection of views from Saturday.

Someone sent me the results. Remember, this is as scientific as cornflakes. It’s just a snapshot. Here we go:

— County Commission District 1: Jeff Kinnard, 70%; Curtiss Bryant, 11%; Undecided, 19%.

— County Commission District 3: Ruthie Davis Schlabach, 63%; Undecided, 28%; Others, 9%.

— County Commission District 5: Holly Davis, 55%; Undecided, 34%; Others, 11%.

I’m going to be honest. The County Commission races are just duds this year. I never would have guessed it with all that’s going on in our county, but there it is. Those numbers are probably fairly close to reality. I have some thoughts.

One, this is not necessarily an indicator that folks are happy with the way things are going. I say that because these three incumbents are not aligned in any way. So, it’s not a statement.

That said, I’m not surprised to see the high number of undecided voters against incumbents. Not enough to cost them a re-election, but enough to make them wonder…why? 

It really boils down to this: Folks aren’t thrilled with the current state of affairs, and they perhaps are not totally confident that county commissioners have it figured out. However, despite all the griping, no one has a better idea. 

Plus, people aren’t blind. They see county commissioners in the Sound Off bullseye every other day and want nothing of it.

— Superintendent of Schools: Scott Hebert, 51%; Jason Koon, 33%; Undecided, 16%. Koon has cool signs all over the place and is a successful high school principal. But he can’t touch Hebert’s resume.

Looking forward to more from these two.

— School Board District 2: Ken Frink, 76%; Laura Gatling-Wright, 5%; Victoria Smith 7%; Dale Marie Merrill, 2%.

I highly doubt these numbers are reality. It's much more bunched up than that. With no incumbent, each is jockeying for position.

Remember that this race is a primary anomaly. Unless the winner gets 50%-plus-1, the top two finishers have a runoff in the November election.

None of these four is a superstar candidate despite what these numbers reflect. It seems unlikely we’ll have an outright primary winner. Another one to watch closely.

— Supervisor of Elections: Maureen “Mo” Baird, 71%; Tifani Long, 11%. Sounds right.

— County Judge: Amber May Thomas, 19%; Lisa Yeager, 41%; Undecided, 40%. I’m going to write about the judge candidates soon. Their task is monumental. Not only do they have to get their names out, but they also need to inform voters OF THE ELECTION. Most people haven’t a clue they vote for a County Court Judge. These numbers reflect that.

— Sheriff: Dave Vincent, 54%; Doug Alexander, 16%; Calvin Adams Jr., 7%; Mike Prendergast, 12%.

OK, first off, Prendergast didn’t attend the Saturday event. and his campaign was a total no-show. Plus, this was in the midst of Michelle Lahera’s column about her husband, Andy, so the sheriff wasn’t exactly feeling the community’s warm fuzzies.

It’s difficult to see an incumbent pulling numbers that low. So let’s just leave it there.

My guess is Alexander and Vincent much are closer. Vincent, I must say, has shot out of a cannon the last six weeks. He continues to impress and, frankly, inspire. As mentioned above, it’s not enough for people to say the incumbent must go. The alternative should be better.

That’s a wrap. June is on the other side of this weekend. Ballot qualifying starts two weeks later. Election Season is well underway.

Have a wonderful Thursday, friends.

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